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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Card Merchant Westcity Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 22.5% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 55.6% | +3.0 |
| Water Allies | 12.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.2% | +6.5 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | -12.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Aesan Protector, Slimeshield, Shadowstrike. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Ensnaring Fumes, Scatter Essence.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Spy | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Shadowstrike | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Emergent Dagger | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sharpen Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |