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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1

at Card Merchant Westcity Regionals

decks
5 (12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22 11-9-2
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.9% avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
52.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1319 · median 1255 · range 1205–1584 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1049 Q1 1242 Q3 1406 1599
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 40% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 22.5% 6 3-2-1 58.3% 55.0% 55.6% +3.0
Water Allies 12.5% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.8% -0.9
Wind Allies 12.5% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 60.2% +6.5
Water Crux Lorraine 10.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.5% -0.5
Fire Aggro 7.5% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.8% -1.2
Fire Luxem Assassin 7.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.6% -15.0
Fire Suzaku 5.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.2% +13.1
Wind Astra Cleric 5.0% 0
Wind Seiryuu 5.0% 0
Fire Exia 2.5% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 36.7% -12.7
Fire Slimes 2.5% 0
Water Genbu 2.5% 0
Water Tera Cleric 2.5% 0
Water Tera Kongming 2.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.3% +13.3
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Aesan Protector, Slimeshield, Shadowstrike. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Ensnaring Fumes, Scatter Essence.

Played more by winners
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 1.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Slimeshield
Winning decks ran 1.2 copies on average, losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Shadowstrike
Winning decks ran 3.2 copies on average, losing decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Verdigris Decree
Winning decks ran 1.8 copies on average, losing decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 1.2 copies on average, losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Played more by losers
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 2.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Ensnaring Fumes
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Scatter Essence
Losing decks ran 3.5 copies on average, winning decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Scout the Land
Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Innervate Agility
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Penumbral Waltz
Losing decks ran 2.8 copies on average, winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 4 0
Ensnaring Fumes -0.75 0 3 1
Scatter Essence -0.75 0 3 1
Reclaim +0.50 2 0 2
Aesan Protector +0.50 3 1 0
Shimmercloak Assassin +0.50 2 0 0
Unbroken Mustang -0.50 0 2 0
Scout the Land -0.50 1 3 0
Slimeshield +0.50 3 1 0
Imperial Spy +0.50 2 0 0
Deflecting Edge +0.50 2 0 0
Seeking Shot +0.50 2 0 0
Wind Resonance Bauble +0.50 2 0 0
Turbo Charge -0.50 0 2 2
Arrow Trap +0.50 2 0 0
Innervate Agility -0.50 1 3 0
Penumbral Waltz -0.50 1 3 0
Slice and Dice -0.25 0 1 3
Assassin's Ripper -0.25 0 1 3
Shadowstrike +0.25 2 1 1
Verdigris Decree +0.25 2 1 1
Sadi, Blood Harvester -0.25 0 1 3
Mastermind Scheme -0.25 1 2 1
Zephyr -0.25 1 2 1
Nullifying Mirror -0.25 1 2 1
Dream Fairy -0.25 1 2 1
Staggering Strike -0.25 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.25 2 1 0
Blinding Orb -0.25 0 1 0
Emergent Dagger +0.25 1 0 0
Diablerie +0.25 1 0 0
Beseech the Winds +0.25 1 0 0
Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar +0.25 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern +0.25 1 0 0
Censer of Restful Peace +0.25 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.00 1 1 2
Stifling Trap +0.00 1 1 2
Sharpen Blade +0.00 1 1 0
Heavenly Guide +0.00 1 1 0
Morgan, Soul Guide +0.00 1 1 0
Tristan, Shadowreaver +0.00 1 1 1

JSON: /api/events/21761/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike